Brazil presidential race heads to October 25 runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

What Happened

Brazil's presidential election will go to a runoff on October 25 between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, finished ahead of Lula, 80, in the October 4 first round, but neither candidate cleared the more than 50% of valid votes needed to win outright. The BBC and The Guardian reported later figures of 56.1 million votes, or 47.03%, for Bolsonaro, compared with 53.8 million, or 45.16%, for Lula. Earlier reports differed slightly as votes were still being counted.

The result gives Bolsonaro an advantage going into the final three weeks of campaigning, although the presidency will be decided only in the second ballot. Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term and had narrowly defeated Flávio Bolsonaro's father in the 2022 presidential election.

The Big Picture

The first round also showed the continuing strength of the political movement built around Jair Bolsonaro, despite the former president's 27-year sentence for plotting to overturn the 2022 election result after losing to Lula.

Right-wing and Bolsonarista candidates made gains in congressional and gubernatorial races. Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro's wife and Flávio Bolsonaro's stepmother, won a Senate seat in the Federal District. Carlos Bolsonaro, Flávio's brother, won a Senate seat in Santa Catarina, while Jair Renan Bolsonaro was elected to the lower house of Congress. Tarcísio de Freitas was re-elected governor of São Paulo state.

Those results could shape the next president's ability to govern. Al Jazeera reported that the Bolsonaro-linked Liberal Party won 121 of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while The Guardian reported the party would hold 28 of the Senate's 81 seats. Both accounts pointed to a strengthened right-wing bloc in Congress.

Why It Matters

The runoff will test whether Lula can broaden his support beyond his core left-wing base and win over voters who backed other candidates. Several of the leading candidates outside the top two came from the right or center-right, potentially giving Bolsonaro a larger pool of voters to court.

Voters have entered the campaign focused on crime, living costs, corruption and the economy. The candidates also offer sharply different approaches to foreign policy. Lula has accused the administration of US President Donald Trump of trying to interfere in Brazil's election, an allegation the US State Department denied, according to NPR. Bolsonaro has pledged closer ties with Washington.

Flávio Bolsonaro has also pledged to seek amnesty for his father if elected. Any such effort would require congressional action, making the legislative results an important part of the political stakes surrounding the runoff.

What Each Side Is Saying

After the first-round result, Flávio Bolsonaro said: “Brazil wants change, and I am very happy with the results.” His campaign has called for a tougher approach to crime and has positioned him as an alternative to the Workers' Party government.

Lula acknowledged he had expected to win in the first round and said he would return stronger. “The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people,” he said, according to Al Jazeera.

What Happens Next

The candidates now have until October 25 to seek support from voters who chose other contenders or did not vote in the first round. The campaign is expected to focus on public security, household finances, the direction of the economy and Brazil's relationship with the United States.

The first-round outcome has underscored the depth of Brazil's political polarization. It has also ensured that the final decision on who leads Latin America's largest democracy will come in a direct contest between Lula and the Bolsonaro family movement.